Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 25.479735 27.075235 28.778023 30.740878 32.954332 35.389116 38.292362
2025-11-30 23.114432 25.292622 27.746309 30.751821 34.387270 38.716628 44.383201
2025-12-07 21.533050 23.973797 26.814203 30.428654 35.007256 40.769238 48.852088
2025-12-14 19.875070 22.373057 25.341678 29.215792 34.280380 40.908201 50.697692
2025-12-21 19.103856 21.751624 24.968010 29.280136 35.115500 43.098246 55.632599
2025-12-28 18.566713 21.362322 24.827984 29.594346 36.264707 45.806269 61.789849
2026-01-04 17.728406 20.536073 24.063024 28.996341 36.059183 46.481716 64.784524
2026-01-11 17.427258 20.369227 24.130891 29.514839 37.470280 49.744801 72.878307
2026-01-18 17.055775 20.084830 24.015918 29.754062 38.470635 52.472415 80.702444
2026-01-25 16.460470 19.475421 23.425281 29.264046 38.295199 53.199552 84.704325
2026-02-01 15.899177 18.886767 22.832377 28.728544 37.993308 53.654886 88.233620
2026-02-08 15.207569 18.099019 21.932074 27.689456 36.804224 52.391810 87.556543
2026-02-15 14.866926 17.833139 21.828330 27.961808 37.992538 56.051562 101.083087
2026-02-22 14.435650 17.432407 21.524358 27.927615 38.708660 59.069387 115.216863
2026-03-01 13.981773 16.973093 21.101813 27.661800 38.971202 61.206455 128.375609
2026-03-08 13.345294 16.233297 20.236081 26.633978 37.767772 60.016928 129.885997
2026-03-15 13.061676 15.974522 20.057169 26.688740 38.529483 63.297241 150.598776
2026-03-22 12.856778 15.815920 20.014084 26.955137 39.710836 67.850325 182.974357
2026-03-29 12.464512 15.374595 19.526383 26.447784 39.342602 68.539086 197.898680
2026-04-05 12.338173 15.308968 19.600278 26.887758 40.893466 74.604538 258.763884
2026-04-12 12.161222 15.161883 19.540400 27.090431 41.986884 79.828784 337.043349
2026-04-19 11.849425 14.806781 19.142953 26.675065 41.727789 81.018318 383.954172
2026-04-26 11.545304 14.454059 18.736133 26.220168 41.339681 81.738035 432.831452